Innovation for Jobs

Innovation for Jobs

i4j Book Draft

The i4j Book 2015

Disrupting Unemployment: The Innovation for Jobs EcoSystem

 

In this book thought leaders present new ideas about how innovation can disrupt unemployment and create meaningful work for everyone in the 21st century. All people can create value, we ‘only’ need an economic system that makes it happen. This book discusses how we can get there from where we are today. Innovation is accelerating, jobs are being taken over by machines, education and employment systems are lagging. Long-term unemployment is growing.  At the same time innovation is enabling people. Soon everyone has a smartphone and can do more with it than elite scientists could do with a supercomputer not long ago. Human capacity is the world’s most underused resource. It is growing exponentially and there are a lot of meaningful things to do. Unleashing the full potential of all people will be the greatest transformation of human culture throughout the history of civilization. The thought leaders in this book speak about the challenges and the opportunities ahead of us.

 

The authors of this volume are a part of the i4j Innovation for Jobs Summit, a global leadership network discussing the future of work, exchanging ideas about value creation and work in the digital innovation economy.

Index

 


PART 1: THE INNOVATION FOR JOBS ECONOMY – i4j IDEAS

 

This will be an updated version of the sketch of an innovation for jobs economy from 2014: https://i4j.info/2015/03/i4j-dc-paris-how-to-disrupt-unemployment/

 

PART 2: CHAPTERS BY INDIVIDUAL AUTHORS

The Bifurcation is Near

By Philip Auerswald, George Mason University

 

 

The fact that digital computers are able to outperform humans in accomplishing mental tasks should come as no surprise: they were designed to do just that. However, this fact alone does not suggest that human work of all types is on a trajectory toward automation and ultimately displacement. The actual impact of digital disruption on the future of work will depend critically on the nature of the work itself — which is to say, the “how” of production, and not just the “what.” Tasks that are routine and can be easily encoded will be performed by computer; those that are not will continue to be performed by people. The answer to the question “Is there anything that humans can do better than digital computers?” will turn out to be fairly simple: Humans are better at being human.

 


 

The “First Software Age”: The Programmable Enterprise and Changing Jobs

By Robert B. Cohen, PhD

 

 

This essay discusses how the “programmable enterprise” differs from traditional firms. Three trends are shaping the evolution of enterprises: cloud computing; handling big data; and managing sensor ecosystems that are part of the Internet of Things. Programmable firms have open, extensible, and interoperable computing and communications architectures. The analysis of big data will be a central feature.

 

This paper argues that changes in technology based on the virtualization of computing and networking will transform the business world into one where software and services play a dominant role. This will change the types of jobs people perform and mean that most jobs will require more technical skills. These changes will occur very rapidly and traditional training mechanisms very likely will be unable to adjust to them.
A very conservative estimate is that spending on these new infrastructure jobs could create about 5 million new employees1 in the period between 2018 and 2023 and perhaps 15 to 25 million jobs by 2033.

 

Mobilizing ecosystems to drive innovation for jobs

By John Hagel

 

Innovation for jobs is a worthy challenge to pursue, but we will never achieve the full potential of this opportunity unless we come together in broader and more diverse ecosystems that can leverage our individual efforts, even if we are very large institutions. Ecosystems are powerful drivers of distributed innovation that will help all of us discover the approaches that can help create work that is rewarding for everyone. Some of these ecosystems are already in place, but even more will be necessary, and we will need to find more effective ways to amplify impact by effectively integrating initiatives across multiple ecosystems. Ecosystems take time to emerge and evolve, but we can focus on the power of narrative as a catalyst to accelerate the development of the ecosystems that we will need for the journey ahead.

 


Using Big Data Methods to Describe and Prescribe A New Innovation for Jobs Economy

By Daniel L. Harple, Jr.

 

It is not proper to call this outcome unjust, for it is the result of positive economic activity conducted under rule of law.  Moreover, while it is deeply challenging to societies with developed economies, the offshoring dimension of this movement, something enabled by digital innovation, has proved hugely helpful to developing economies in building their own middle class, albeit atop a much lower commodity wage base.  So there is good to be had here.

 

Nonetheless, it is proper to call these changes destabilizing and threatening to national and international interests.  Liberal democracy’s success has long been linked to a vibrant middle class united in a common aspiration to see their children enjoy a lifestyle equal to or better than their own.  When such aspirations cease to be realistic, people are no longer willing to make the sacrifices that make civil society work, and conditions deteriorate rapidly as we have seen in countless failed and failing states around the world.

 

There are strong incentives, therefore, for both the public and private sector to intercede on behalf of middle class interests.  This can consist of a portfolio of strategies including protectionism, wealth redistribution, cost of living reduction, and job creation.  Protectionism and wealth redistribution are tactics to ameliorate short-term effects of drastic dislocations, but neither is sustainable as a long-term strategy.  Sooner or later efficient economic entities take their toll on protected ones, and wealth finds a way to slip out from under even the most stringent societal controls.  Cost of living reduction on the other hand, is a sustainable strategy, particularly when it is linked to new sources of income, even if those be modest.  This is the engine driving the new collaborative economy springing up around digital enterprises like eBay, Etsy, Uber, Airbnb and the like.

 

That all said, by far the most sustainable strategy for developed economies is to proactively develop net new middle class job creation at scale.  The question is, how is the world do we do that?

 

The basic metaphor I propose we keep in mind here is sailing, the critical success factors being boat, wind, and course.  In the context of middle class job creation, the sailboat itself is the new job, the wind is the economic value that pays for that job, and the course is the positioning of the new jobs to catch the prevailing winds.

 

So what are the new winds blowing that will fund a next generation of middle class jobs?  Basically jobs come into being around opportunities to release trapped value in economic systems.  If that value can be tapped and transformed into an economic offer, this creates the net new cash flows that fund net new jobs.  And if those jobs match up to our targeted criteria for middle class job creation—complex enough to warrant a middle class wage while replicable enough to scale across a sufficiently broad population to scale, then we are well under way.

 


 

How to Disrupt Unemployment Policy?

By Sven Littorin

 

The 21st century is poised to be the health century.  Growing demand for health among consumers will potentially fuel significant job creation.  For the health industry, the job crisis that looms ahead is a shortage of labor, not jobs.

 

As with other industries, technology, innovation, and automation have replaced many functions previously performed by humans in the health industry, yet job growth continues to exceed job losses.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 2002 and 2012 healthcare experienced the largest annual growth rate (2.3%) of jobs among all major industries.

 

Looking ahead, the BLS estimates that healthcare jobs will grow at an even higher annualized rate of 2.6% between 2012 and 2022.  Cumulatively, that is more than 8 million jobs added between 2002 and 2022. To put that number into perspective, the total number of unemployed Americans in 2015 is 8.6 million according to the BLS.  Thus, the growth in healthcare jobs is of a scale that could help significantly offset unemployment issues and job losses elsewhere in the economy.

 

Even accounting for expected expansion of healthcare jobs, many health professions are facing increasing labor shortages over the next decade.  The aging population—and the associated acceleration of demand for healthcare—is a major factor in the worsening labor shortage.  The situation with physicians is exemplary.  Gone are the times when physician shortages mostly involved primary care doctors or rural geographies.  Now, shortage of all doctors, including specialists, are expected in cities as well as rural areas.  The expected physician shortage is particularly relevant to the job discussion because each physician job creates 14 jobs for staff and related professionals, according to an American Medical Association study.

 

Understaffing is so pervasive across the health system already such that delays of service are ingrained into consumer expectation like no other industry.  The waiting room of health facilities is a cultural institution onto itself with formidable collections of reading materials to occupy frustrated customers.  The understaffing is not without costs.  Patient presentations to hospitals outside of the peak staffing hours of 9 am to 5 pm on weekdays have long been known to be associated higher mortality rates, but these gaps of coverage remain as an accepted part of the norm in a system stretched thin.

 

Given current staffing shortages and expected worsening of shortages anticipated in the future, the growth of health industry jobs predicted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics over the next decade understates its job creation potential.

 


 

Developing Middle Class Jobs in a Digital Economy

By Geoffrey Moore

 

Digital innovation is reengineering our manufacturing-based product-centric economy to improve quality, reduce cost, expand markets, increase profits, and reward investment—all of which are very good things.  It is doing so, however, largely at the expense of traditional middle class jobs.  This class of work that is bifurcating into elite professions that are highly compensated but outside the skillset  of the target population and commoditizing workloads for which the wages fall well below the target level.  Some have called this the “hollowing-out” of the middle class.

 

It is not proper to call this outcome unjust, for it is the result of positive economic activity conducted under rule of law.  Moreover, while it is deeply challenging to societies with developed economies, the offshoring dimension of this movement, something enabled by digital innovation, has proved hugely helpful to developing economies in building their own middle class, albeit atop a much lower commodity wage base.  So there is good to be had here.

 

Nonetheless, it is proper to call these changes destabilizing and threatening to national and international interests.  Liberal democracy’s success has long been linked to a vibrant middle class united in a common aspiration to see their children enjoy a lifestyle equal to or better than their own.  When such aspirations cease to be realistic, people are no longer willing to make the sacrifices that make civil society work, and conditions deteriorate rapidly as we have seen in countless failed and failing states around the world.

 

There are strong incentives, therefore, for both the public and private sector to intercede on behalf of middle class interests.  This can consist of a portfolio of strategies including protectionism, wealth redistribution, cost of living reduction, and job creation.  Protectionism and wealth redistribution are tactics to ameliorate short-term effects of drastic dislocations, but neither is sustainable as a long-term strategy.  Sooner or later efficient economic entities take their toll on protected ones, and wealth finds a way to slip out from under even the most stringent societal controls.  Cost of living reduction on the other hand, is a sustainable strategy, particularly when it is linked to new sources of income, even if those be modest.  This is the engine driving the new collaborative economy springing up around digital enterprises like eBay, Etsy, Uber, Airbnb and the like.

 

That all said, by far the most sustainable strategy for developed economies is to proactively develop net new middle class job creation at scale.  The question is, how is the world do we do that?

 

The basic metaphor I propose we keep in mind here is sailing, the critical success factors being boat, wind, and course.  In the context of middle class job creation, the sailboat itself is the new job, the wind is the economic value that pays for that job, and the course is the positioning of the new jobs to catch the prevailing winds.

 

So what are the new winds blowing that will fund a next generation of middle class jobs?  Basically jobs come into being around opportunities to release trapped value in economic systems.  If that value can be tapped and transformed into an economic offer, this creates the net new cash flows that fund net new jobs.  And if those jobs match up to our targeted criteria for middle class job creation—complex enough to warrant a middle class wage while replicable enough to scale across a sufficiently broad population to scale, then we are well under way.

 


 

Towards Achieving Supercritical Elevated (SHE) Economy

By Monique Morrow

What is Innovation 4 Jobs without correlating the construct of Gender Security to this topic?  On par with such global examples like Climate Change or Water Security, the notion of Gender Security is ever so relevant now than ever before. Facts have not changed that much since the World Bank published its report on “missing women” in 2011.

 

Wealth: Women represent 40% of the world’s labor force but hold just 1% of the world’s wealth.

 

Wages: Salaried women workers earn 62 cents for every $1 that men earn in Germany, 64 cents in India and about 80 cents in Mexico and Egypt. Women entrepreneurs fare far worse, earning 34 cents for every $1 men earn in Ethiopia and just 12 cents in Bangladesh relative to every $1 for men.

 

Mortality: Women and girls are more likely to die relative to men and boys in low and middle-income countries, with 3.9 million “missing” women and girls each year under the age of 60, the report says. At least 40% of those are never born, one-sixth die in infancy and a third in their reproductive years. The problem is worst in sub-Saharan Africa and countries hit by HIV/AIDS.

 

Education: Women now account for more than half the world’s university students, and 60 countries have more young women than men in universities. Primary-education disparities between boys and girls have closed in almost all nations. And in secondary education, girls now outnumber boys in 45 developing countries. But ethnicity combined with poverty can be a barrier: two-thirds of out-of-school girls around the world belong to ethnic minority groups.

 

The power to tap into women as creators for jobs is therefore great.
Imagine disrupting unemployment via a Global SHE platform powered by women using open source software and where the consumption is via a smart device.
Imagine disrupting the cultural barriers via the SHE Platform.
Women can connect to this open platform and deliver exponentially services that citizens will consume.

 

The emphasis is on SHE.
Github will be foundational ; and, the platform will be enabled by the Internet.
Open source will be a key modality for this platform.

 

Block chain technology can retain a trust ledger for the SHE platform.
SHE API governance will be via an auction mechanism to determine the value of a proposed API.

 

A freemium model is envisaged as a first stage as to induce usage of the Global SHE Platform.

 

One will use the SHE platform to provide foundational code skills and as a connector for other women entrepreneurs globally – think a resource discovery mechanism.

 

It is this vision for creating an Internet of Women job creators that will most definitely contribute to global economies!

 

Could we not imagine achieving a planet of 50-50 gainfully employed human beings via the SHE platform?

 


 

An “Innovation for Jobs” Ecosystem, “Disrupting Unemployment”

By David Nordfors

 

 

Today, there is a lot of innovation, but it’s debated if it drives economic growth or not. If we look back, we will say it always has, because everything we have today was once an innovation: products, services, processes, and our jobs. There is no guarantee that this will continue. Successful innovation will almost always kill jobs and there is no way of saying that it will create better jobs than the ones it kills. Now that machines are getting much smarter and can do ever more tasks without the support of people, will innovation put an end to jobs? It’s our choice, only we don’t know the outcome of our choices. Better, cheaper products and services is what we buy as customers, even if it kills our jobs.

 

This paper suggests that a switch on mindset, from a task-centered, minimizing the cost of tasks, to a people-centered economy maximizing the value of people, can benefit us both as earners and spenders. It can offer a better market for innovation at the same go as it connects innovation with economic growth. De basic ideas is that today most innovation helps customers spend or save better. If there is more innovation that helps people earn better, in more meaningful ways, incentives for business and economy aligns. If innovators earn more helping  people earn more, they will go good business while people have more to spend, and the economy will grow. Here we will look deeper into what the ‘people-centered economy’ means and does.

 


 

Innovation For Jobs with Cognitive Assistants:

A Service Science Perspective

By Jim Spohrer, IBM

Abstract:  In the age of smart machines, rather than try to predict the future of jobs, is it possible to assist each individual in the design of an optimal job?  After all, untapped and unrealized human potential is perhaps the greatest waste of all time.  Nordfors (2014) states: “If we become as innovative in creating good jobs as we are in creating innovative products and services, then the innovation economy is sustainable.” This chapter explores the topic of innovation for jobs from a service science perspective, and suggests a path forward based on cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems.

 


Chapter Title:  Can the Health Industry Cure the Ailing Job Market?

By Joon Yun, M.D.

 

 

The 21st century is poised to be the health century.  Growing demand for health among consumers will potentially fuel significant job creation.  For the health industry, the job crisis that looms ahead is a shortage of labor, not jobs.

 

As with other industries, technology, innovation, and automation have replaced many functions previously performed by humans in the health industry, yet job growth continues to exceed job losses.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 2002 and 2012 healthcare experienced the largest annual growth rate (2.3%) of jobs among all major industries.

 

Looking ahead, the BLS estimates that healthcare jobs will grow at an even higher annualized rate of 2.6% between 2012 and 2022.  Cumulatively, that is more than 8 million jobs added between 2002 and 2022. To put that number into perspective, the total number of unemployed Americans in 2015 is 8.6 million according to the BLS.  Thus, the growth in healthcare jobs is of a scale that could help significantly offset unemployment issues and job losses elsewhere in the economy.

 

Given current staffing shortages and expected worsening of shortages anticipated in the future, the growth of health industry jobs predicted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics over the next decade understates its job creation potential.